Stats: Our un-Real record and comeback chances

Last week’s sensational 3-0 success at Real Madrid was a night to remember as we took a huge step towards the Champions League semi-finals.

But since then, the footballing world has been wondering if a three-goal cushion is enough for us, given we’re heading to the home of the reigning champions who have a unique aura around themselves which has helped see their name engraved on the trophy a record 15 times.

You only have to look back at Real’s swift turnarounds against Manchester City in the play-off round back in January, last season’s triumph over Bayern Munich when Joselu netted twice in stoppage-time to snatch a semi-final victory, or turning a 2-0 loss at Liverpool in 2023 into a 5-2 aggregate success as evidence of their ability to turn things around in the blink of an eye.

But those encounters saw Madrid only two goals down, so how big of a mountain do Madrid have to climb? There are plenty of statistics for Gooners to hang onto heading into our second-ever visit to the white half of Madrid.

OVERCOMING THE ODDS

Last week’s defeat at Emirates Stadium was only the fifth time Real have lost the first leg of a knockout stage tie in the European Cup or Champions League by three or more goals, and have tasted elimination in the second leg on three of the previous four occasions.

They’ve not overcome a three-goal deficit in Europe since 1985/86 when they were competing in the UEFA Cup, losing 5-1 to Borussia Monchengladbach in the first leg before blowing the Germany away with a 4-0 hammering in the return fixture to go through on away goals and ultimately claim more silverware.

In more recent times though, it is only the second time since the Champions League was rebranded in 1992 that they’ve found themselves this far behind heading into the second leg. The other saw them lose 4-1 to Borussia Dortmund in the 2012/13 semi-final, and while they threw everything into the second leg, a 2-0 home victory was not enough to progress.

And across the 53 games that Real have played against English sides in the European Cup and Champions League, they’ve only managed to win by more than three goals on just two previous occasions: 5-1 against Derby County in 1975/76 - when they were also three down after the first leg - and 4-0 against Tottenham Hotspur in the 2010/11 quarter-final.

Looking further afield at the history of the Champions League, there have been 47 instances of a team taking a lead of three or more goals into the second leg, and that margin has only been overturned on four occasions, representing 8.5% of those scenarios.

OUR UNBEATEN RECORD

Looking at ourselves though, the history books show that on the 13 occasions where we’ve headed into the second leg of a European tie with a three-goal cushion, we’ve progressed on every occasion, and we have only been beaten by three or more goals 10 times in our European history with the last coming in the 2019 Europa League final loss to Chelsea.

In fact, the last time we conceded three times in any game was back in December 2023 and we still came out victorious when we beat Luton Town 4-3 at Kenilworth Road, while we last time we lost by a three-goal margin was when Brighton & Hove Albion triumphed 3-0 at Emirates Stadium nearly three years ago.

We can also point to the fact that we’ve not lost to Real Madrid in our three previous meetings, and we are the only side to have faced them three times in major European competition without conceding a single goal. Only Ipswich Town, Lille and Aberdeen can also boast that they remain undefeated against Real Madrid in continental clashes.

MORE HISTORY BECKONS?

Having famously become the first English side to win at the Bernabeu back in 2006, we could also make more history by being the only English team to win there twice, and despite there being 19 years since our last isit, we boast plenty of knowhow in our current squad about what it takes to win at Real’s home in the Champions League.

After Liverpool won there 1-0 in 2009, 11 years would pass until Manchester City became the next to win there when Gabriel Jesus scored one and Raheem Sterling assisted the other in a 2-1 success. Then there was joy for two more current Gunners in 2022 when Kai Havertz and Jorginho played their parts in Chelsea’s 3-2 victory in the Spanish capital in April 2022, albeit the Blues were beaten on aggregate that night.

A whole host of Gunners now have the opportunity to etch their names into the record books, but most importantly, they’ll solely be focused on building on the sublime work done in north London to secure our place in our third Champions League semi-final.